Fixture difficulty.
Compare upcoming fixtures for attack and defence.
Fixture difficulty
Brighton1.3 / 5
Arsenal1.1 / 5| CLUB20 of 20 clubs | GW931 Oct · in progress | GW106 Nov | GW1121 Nov | GW1227 Nov | GW131 Dec | GW145 Dec | Avg difficultylower is easier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1BrightonBHA · Promoted | 1.36 fixtures | ||||||
2 BournemouthBOU · Promoted | 1.76 fixtures | ||||||
3 Man CityMCI · Promoted | 1.96 fixtures | ||||||
| 4ArsenalARS · Promoted | 2.26 fixtures | ||||||
5 Man UtdMUN · Promoted | 2.26 fixtures | ||||||
6 Nott'm ForestNFO · Promoted | 2.36 fixtures | ||||||
7 LiverpoolLIV · Promoted | 2.56 fixtures | ||||||
8 BrentfordBRE · Promoted | 2.76 fixtures | ||||||
9 SunderlandSUN · Promoted | 2.96 fixtures | ||||||
10 FulhamFUL · Promoted | 3.06 fixtures | ||||||
11 Crystal PalaceCRY · Promoted | 3.16 fixtures | ||||||
12 ChelseaCHE · Promoted | 3.26 fixtures | ||||||
13 Ipswich TownIPS · Promoted | 3.26 fixtures | ||||||
14 LeedsLEE · Promoted | 3.26 fixtures | ||||||
15 Aston VillaAVL · Promoted | 3.26 fixtures | ||||||
16 EvertonEVE · Promoted | 3.36 fixtures | ||||||
17 Coventry CityCOV · Promoted | 3.86 fixtures | ||||||
18 SpursTOT · Promoted | 3.86 fixtures | ||||||
19 NewcastleNEW · Promoted | 3.96 fixtures | ||||||
20 Hull CityHUL · Promoted | 4.16 fixtures |
ArsenalAwayLiverpoolHomeSun 1 Nov, 16:30 · UK time
ATTACK
Arsenal · 2.9 / 5
Based on Arsenal’s adjusted xG for this fixture, compared with the league median xG per game. Higher projected xG means a lower difficulty score.
How the forecasts work
Season so far
Team rates use all finalised 2026/27 matches since GW1. Each club’s xG and xGA are divided by its matches played, then we take the league median across clubs. Every completed fixture counts equally, with no adjustment for past opponents.
The opponent
We adjust each club’s season xG and xGA using its opponent’s rates compared with the league median. For each scoring direction, we average the attacking estimate and the opponent’s concession estimate. The same unrounded forecast is then used for one team’s xG and the other team’s xGA.
Reading the grid
Scores compare each club’s adjusted xG or xGA with the league median per game, combining the club’s own strength with its opponent. Higher projected xG gives a better attacking score; lower projected xGA gives a better defensive score. Lower scores are more favourable, and 3.0 equals the league median output. Run scores use the average forecast per fixture before converting to 1–5. Home and away labels show the venue, with no venue adjustment.