Introducing fplalpha: Expected Points for FPL

FPL is about making better decisions. But how do you know which players are truly undervalued?

The Problem

Traditional metrics like goals, assists, and points don't capture the full picture. A player who takes 10 shots per game but has a low conversion rate is underperforming their underlying quality.

The Solution: Expected Points (xP)

Expected Points is a model that measures how many points a player should score based on their underlying performance metrics — shots, key passes, defensive actions, and more.

How It Works

Our model analyzes:

• Attacking Output: Shots, shot quality, and expected goals (xG)
• Creating Chances: Key passes and chance creation
• Defensive Contribution: Tackles, interceptions, and blocks
• Consistency: Performance over full season and last 5 games

The Signals

Based on xP data, we generate BUY and SELL signals:

• BUY: Players outperforming their underlying metrics — likely to improve
• SELL: Players underperforming — regression likely

Start Exploring

Check the Signals page to see which players are trending up or down this week.

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Ready to optimize your FPL squad with data? Start by exploring our Signals and Player Analysis pages.